Week 8 Projections

Looks about right for the most part...

And the updated Season Projections:

Teams on the Rise:
Chiefs 4-6, Broncos 2-3, Bengals 10-11, Texans 10-12, Jaguars 3-5, Cowboys 8-10, Giants 8-9, 49ers 13-14 (what?!), Bears 8-10, Panthers 3-7 (whoa), Saints 11-12

Teams on the Decline:
Dolphins 2-1, Raiders 9-6, Ravens 13-12, Colts 1-0, Titans 11-8, Redskins 10-8, Cardinals 6-5, Packers (14-13, despite winning, barely beating the Vikings hurts them), Vikings 4-3, Falcons 10-9, Bucs 8-5

Teams staying put:
Bills (10), Patriots (11), Jets (11), Chargers (12), Browns (5), Steelers (12), Eagles (9), Seahawks (6), Rams (0), Lions (11)

Playoffs:
AFC Teams by Seed:
1-Steelers, 2-Chargers, 3-Texans, 4-Patriots, 5-Ravens, 6-Jets
NFC Teams by Seed:
1-Niners, 2-Packers, 3-Saints, 4-Cowboys, 5-Lions, 6-Bears


Wildcard Week:
Ravens @ Patriots, Ravens win
Jets @ Texans, Texans win
Lions @ Cowboys, Cowboys win
Bears @ Saints, Saints win

Divional Week:
Ravens @ Steelers, Steelers win
Texans @ Chargers, Chargers win
Cowboys @ Niners, Niners win
Saints @ Packers, Packers win

Conference Week:
Chargers @ Steelers, Steelers win
Packers @ Niners, Niners win

Superbowl:
Steelers vs Niners, Niners win 16-15

I'm the biggest 49er fan there is, but I don't even see this happening.  I rechecked the stats for the playoff teams and this was the result.  I hope it's right...

Note that the program rounds down to the nearest number (it has decimals for the scores initially).  In the event of a tie, it gives the team with the higher number before the rounding an extra point.  In this superbowl, it predicted Niners 15.4-Steelers 15.1...  Obviously, the smallest change in stats week to week could change this outcome.

History of projected superbowl winner:

Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49ers

History of projected superbowl loser:

Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers

Week 7 analysis

Extreme regression of accuracy.  6/13 game winners correct.  Lets hope it bounces back this week...  The fact that there were 5 different quarterbacks starting this past week and 4/5 of them were predicted to win (based off of stats from having the previous QB) and those 4 lost... that doesn't help.

Week 7 Projections

Looks about right to me... Denver might win with Tebow though, who knows?  I also think the Bears and Texans should win their games too.

Updated Season Projections:

Teams on the Rise:

Raiders 7-9, Eagles 8-9, Cardinals 5-6 (despite not playing, Rams got worse), 49ers 12-13, Seahawks 4-6 (despite not playing, Rams got worse), Bears 6-8, Packers 13-14, Falcons 7-10, Bucs 6-8

Teams on the Decline:

Chiefs 5-4, Chargers 13-12, Texans 11-10, Colts 2-1, Giants 9-8 (despite winning), Redskins 12-10, Rams 2-0, Lions 14-11, Panthers 4-3, Saints 13-11

Teams staying put:

Bills (10), Dolphins (2), Patriots (11), Jets (11), Broncos (2), Ravens (13), Bengals (10), Browns (5), Steelers (12), Jaguars (3), Titans (11), Cowboys (8), Vikings (4)

Playoff Projections:

AFC Teams by Seed:

1-Ravens, 2-Chargers, 3-Patriots, 4-Titans, 5-Steelers, 6-Jets

NFC Teams by Seed: 

1-Packers, 2-Niners, 3-Saints, 4-Redskins, 5-Lions, 6-Falcons

Wild Card Week:

Steelers @ Titans, Steelers win

Jets @ Patriots, Patriots win

Lions @ Redskins, Redskins win

Falcons @ Saints, Saints win

Division Week:

Steelers @ Ravens, Ravens win

Patriots @ Chargers, Chargers win

Redskins @ Packers, Packers win

Saints @ Niners, Niners win

Conference Week

Chargers @ Ravens, Ravens win

Niners @ Packers, Packers win

Superbowl

Ravens vs Packers, Ravens win 23-17

History of past superbowl winner:

Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens

History of projected superbowl loser:

Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers

Week 6 Recap

10/13 game winners correct again.  76% accuracy.  11/13 would be 84% and a huge improvement.  Let's see if it can do that this week.

Week 6 Projections

Call me a homer, but I don't see the niners losing by 14 points and I think Carolina may upset Atlanta.  I also think the Bills will beat the Giants and the Eagles will beat the Redskins, but I guess we'll see, now won't we?

Season Projections:

Teams on the rise:
Bills 9-10, Jets 10-11 (despite losing), Chiefs 4-5, Jaguars 2-3 (despite losing), Redskins 11-12 (despite not playing, their competition is getting weaker), 49ers 11-12, Seahawks 3-4, Lions 13-14, Panthers 2-4, Saints 12-13

Teams on the decline:
Dolphins 3-2 (despite not playing), Colts 3-2, Giants 10-9, Eagles 9-8, Cardinals 6-5, Falcons 9-7, Bucs 10-6

Teams staying put:
Patriots (11), Broncos (2), Raiders (7), Chargers (13), Ravens (13), Bengals (10), Browns (5), Steelers (12), Texans (11), Jaguars (3), Titans (11), Cowboys (8), Rams (2), Bears (6), Vikings (4)

Playoff Projections:
AFC Teams by seed:
1-Ravens, 2-Chargers, 3-Patriots, 4-Texans, 5-Steelers, 6-Titans
NFC Teams by seed:
1-Lions, 2-Saints, 3 Niners, 4-Redskins, 5-Packers, 6-Giants

Wild Card Week:

Steelers @ Texans, Texans Win
Titans @ Patriots, Patriots Win
Packers @ Redskins, Redskins Win
Giants @ Niners, Niners Win

Division Week:

Texans @ Ravens, Ravens Win
Patriots @ Chargers, Chargers Win
Niners @ Saints, Saints Win
Redskins @ Lions, Lions Win

Conference Week:
Chargers @ Ravens, Ravens Win
Saints @ Lions, Lions Win

Superbowl:
Ravens beat Lions 22-16

History of projected superbowl winner:

Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens

History of projected superbowl loser:

Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions

Week 5 Recap

10/13 games winners were predicted which is an improvement at 76%.  The points were off by an average of 9 this week which is off more than last week.  The 49ers unprecedented blow out really skewed those results, however.

Could we see 11/13 right this week?

Week 5 Projections

A couple of blow out games that I'm not sure I agree with here, but I'm not arguing the winners here.  6 Teams on a bye, so only 13 games here.  62.5% were correct in week 1, 68.75% were correct on week 2 & 3, and 75% was correct for week 4.  To get better, it will need to get 10/13 right for 76%.  Note that it predicted Green Bay's blow out score perfectly.  Didn't see that coming.

Season Projections:

Teams on the Rise:

Bills 8-9 (despite losing), Chiefs 3-4, Chargers 11-13, Bengals 8-10, Texans 8-11, Titans 9-11, Redskins 8-11 (no way), Cardinals 5-6 (despite losing), 49ers 10-11 (fingers crossed), Lions 12-13, Packers 12-13, Vikings 3-4 (despite losing), Bucs 9-10

Teams on the Decline:

Dolphins 4-3, Jets 12-10, Raiders 10-7, Browns 6-5, Steelers 15-12, Colts 5-3, Jags 5-2, Eagles 10-9, Bears 9-6, Falcons 10-9 (despite winning)

Teams Staying Put:

Patriots (11), Broncos (2), Ravens (13), Cowboys (8), Giants (10), Seahawks (3), Rams (2), Panthers (2), Saints (12)

Play off projections-Baltimore wins it all

AFC Teams by Seed:

1-Ravens, 2 Chargers, 3 Patriots, 4 Texans, 5 Steelers, 6 Titans

NFC Teams by Seed:

1-Packers, 2-Saints, 3 Redskins, 4 Niners, 5 Lions, 6 Giants

Wild Card Week:

Steelers @ Patriots, Patriots win

Titans @ Texans, Texans win

Lions @ Niners, Niners win

Giants @ Redskins, Redskins win

Division Week:

Patriots @ Chargers, Chargers win

Texans @ Ravens, Ravens win

Niners @ Packers, Packers win

Redskins @ Saints, Saints win

Conference Week:

Chargers @ Ravens, Ravens win

Saints @ Packers, Packers win

Superbowl:

Packers vs Ravens, Ravens win 23-18

History of projected superbowl winner:

Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens

History of projected superbowl loser:

Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers

Week 4 Analysis

12/16 game winners predicted correctly, scores off by an average of 7.  See, I told you it would get more and more accurate.