Week 13 Projections

13/16 last week.  Best so far.

The first 3 games are the most questionable to me... and then there's the Jaguars over the Chargers.  We'll see!

Season Projections:

Teams on the rise:

Dolphins 4-6, Broncos 6-7, Raiders 7-8, Redskins 4-5, Cardinals 5-6, Saints 11-12

Teams on the decline:

Chiefs 5-4, Chargers 7-6, Eagles 8-6, Seahawks 7-5, Bears 12-11

Teams staying put:

Bills (6), Patriots (13), Jets (11), Ravens (13), Bengals (9), Browns (4), Steelers (12), Texans (13), Colts (0), Jaguars (6), Titans (10), Cowboys (12), Giants (7), 49ers (14), Rams (2), Lions (10), Packers (16), Vikings (3), Falcons (10), Panthers (5), Bucs (4)

Despite Brees record passing pace, I still have him throwing less than 5,000 yards based on his upcoming matchups.  I have Brady breaking the record instead.  Crazy, no?

Anyway... Playoffs:

AFC Teams by seed:

1-Ravens, 2-Patriots, 3-Texans, 4-Raiders, 5-Steelers, 6-Jets

NFC Teams by seed:

1-Packers, 2-49ers, 3-Saints, 4-Cowboys, 5-Bears, 6-Falcons

Wild Card Week:

Steelers @ Raiders, Steelers win

Jets @ Texans, Texans win

Bears @ Cowboys, Cowboys win

Falcons @ Saints, Saints win

Divisional Week:

Steelers @ Ravens, Ravens win

Texans @ Patriots, Texans win

Cowboys @ Packers, Packers win

Saints @ 49ers, 49ers win

Conference Week:

Texans @ Ravens, Ravens win

49ers @ Packers, Packers win

Superbowl:

Ravens beat Packers 25-21

History of SB Winners by Week:
1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49ers, 9-Steelers, 10-Ravens, 11-Ravens, 12-Texans, 13-Ravens
History of SB Losers by Week:
1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers, 9-49ers, 10-49ers, 11-Packers, 12-Packers, 13-Packers

Week 12 Projections

I agree with most of this but I think the Niners will win and Detroit will get the upset.  We'll see.

Without further ado, the new season projections:

Teams on the rise:

Dolphins 2-4, Broncos 5-6, Raiders 6-7, Browns 3-4, Titans 9-10, Eagles 7-8, Seahawks 6-7

Teams on the decline:

Bills 9-6, Jets 12-22, Jaguars 7-6, Giants 8-7, Cardinals 6-5, Vikings 4-3

Teams staying put:

Patriots (13), Chiefs (5), Chargers (7), Ravens (13), Bengals (9), Steelers (12), Texans (13), Colts (0), Cowboys (12), 49ers (14), Redskins (4), Rams (2), Bears (12), Lions (10), Packers (16), Falcons (10), Panthers (5), Saints (11), Bucs (4)

Playoff projections:
AFC Teams by seed:
1-Patriots, 2-Ravens, 3-Texans, 4-Raiders, 5-Steelers, 6-Jets
NFC Teams by seed:
1-Packers, 2-49ers, 3-Cowboys, 4-Saints, 5-Bears, 6-Falcons

Wildcard Week:
Steelers @ Raiders, Steelers win
Jets @ Texans, Texans win
Bears @ Saints, Saints win
Falcons @ Cowboys, Cowboys win

Division Week:
Steelers @ Patriots, Steelers win
Texans @ Ravens, Texans win
Saints @ Packers, Packers win
Cowboys @ 49ers, 49ers win

Steelers @ Texans, Texans win
49ers @ Packers, Packers win

Superbowl:
Texans beat Packers 27-21

Like I said last week, this is based off of Houston's stats WITH Matt Shaub.  They had a bye week this week so their stats didn't change.  In fact, their opponents got worse, hence the SB win.  I don't expect it to stay this way as I've seen Matt Leinart plenty of times.  He sucks.

History of superbowl winner:
Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49ers, 9-Steelers, 10-Ravens, 11-Ravens, 12-Texans
History of superbowl loser:
Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers, 9-49ers, 10-49ers, 11-Packers, 12-Packers

Week 11 analysis

9/14 correct.  Getting better, I guess.

Week 11 projections

After the new and improved formulas, this is what I have for the week.  With the old one, it had Green Bay scoring 67 points.  That's when I knew something needed a little tweaking.  Still, 55 points is a LOT.  It projects the Vikings beating the Raiders.  So long as they stick to running the rock with AP, I think this program might be right since Oakland can't stop the run to save their lives.

Anyway, onto the latest season projections.  Green Bay... perfect season, but the superbowl?  Not so much.

Teams on the rise:

Patriots 11-13, Broncos 4-5, Raiders 5-6, Ravens 12-13 (undefeated rest of season?!), Steelers 11-12, Texans 12-13, Jaguars 6-7, Titans 8-9, Cowboys 8-12, Cardinals 5-6, Seahawks 4-6, Bears 11-12, Packers 14-16, Saints 10-11

Teams on the decline:

Jets 13-12, Chiefs 7-5, Chargers 9-7, Bengals 12-9, Browns 5-3, Giants 10-8, Eagles 9-7, Redskins 5-4, Rams 3-2 (despite winning?  huh?), Lions 11-10, Falcons 11-10, Bucs 6-4

Teams staying put:

Bills (9), Dolphins (2), Colts (0), 49ers (14), Vikings (4), Panthers (5)

As you can see, last week along with the new formula really shook things up.  I don't see Baltimore and Houston winning out.  After all these are based on stats WITH Matt Shaub, so look for Houston to potentially crash and burn in the projections over the next few weeks.  I don't see the Bucs losing the rest of the games either, but they really are playing terrible right now and their schedule isn't exactly an easy one so who knows?  I think they'll split with the Panthers, but could potentially lose the other 5 games.

As for my 49ers... 14-2 is looking more and more like a possibilty.  Projections have them losing to Baltimore and beating Pittsburgh.  The other 5 games are against NFC West teams.  I'm thinking 13-3 at worst at this point.

Onto the playoff projections.  Baltimore for the perfect season Packers upset.

AFC Teams by seed:

1-Ravens, 2-Texans, 3-Patriots, 4-Chargers, 5-Steelers, 6-Jets

NFC Teams by seed:

1-Packers, 2-49ers, 3-Cowboys, 4-Saints, 5-Bears, 6-Falcons

Wild Card week:

Steelers @ Chargers, Steelers win

Jets @ Patriots, Patriots win

Bears @ Saints, Saints win

Falcons @ Cowboys, Cowboys win

Divisional week:

Steelers @ Ravens, Ravens win

Patriots @ Texans, Texans win (Again, this is based off of Matt Shaub stats.  There isn't enough to go on for Leinart and this program is based on completely unbiased facts.  I will not enter data that I THINK will represent how the Texans are with a different QB)

Saints @ Packers, Packers win

Cowboys @ 49ers, 49ers win

Conference week:

Texans @ Ravens, Ravens win

49ers @ Packers, Packers win

Superbowl:

Ravens beat the Packers 24-22

History of sueprbowl winner:

Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49ers, 9-Steelers, 10-Ravens, 11-Ravens

History of superbowl loser:

Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers, 9-49ers, 10-49ers, 11-Packers

Yeah, I know the Ravens lost to Seattle.  Statistically speaking, they are still the team to be reckoned with... statistically...

Week 10 Analysis

What the fuck?

7/16 correct.  This just got embarassing.  Seattle beat Baltimore.  Yes, you know it's going to be a bad week of predictions when that happens.

I noticed that my calculations were giving a little too much advantage to home teams, so I scaled down the advantage by about 60%.  This is my only adjustment to my program I've made all season.  Running it this way for the season that's already occurred made it about 20% more accurate.  When I first made this program, I thought it might have been too much.  Turns out I was right.  Lets see how I do from here on out.

Week 10 Projections

55 points for Green Bay?  nah.  Niners beat Giants by 21?  Also, nah.  Bengals over Steelers?  Hmmm.

Teams on the rise:

Jets 12-13, Broncos 3-4, Jaguars 5-6, Giants 9-10, Bears 9-11, Packers 13-14, Falcons 10-11

Teams on the decline:

Bills 10-9, Patriots 12-11, Raiders 6-5, Chargers 10-9, Steelers 12-11, Eagles 10-9, Lions 12-11 (despite being on a bye), Panthers 6-5 (same as Lions)

Teams staying put:

Dolphins (2), Chiefs (7), Ravens (12), Bengals (12), Browns (5), Texans (12), Colts (0), Titans (8), Cowboys (8), Redskins (5), Cardinals (5), 49ers (14), Seahawks (4), Rams (3), Vikings (4), Saints (10), Bucs (6)

Playoff projections
AFC Teams by seed:
1-Jets, 2-Ravens, 3-Texans, 4-Chargers, 5-Bengals, 6-Steelers
NFC Teams by seed:
1-49ers, 2-Packers, 3-Falcons, 4-Giants, 5-Lions, 6-Bears

Wild Card Week:
Bengals @ Chargers, Chargers win
Steelers @ Texans, Texans win
Lions @ Giants, Giants win
Bears @ Falcons, Falcons win

Division Week:
Chargers @ Jets, Jets win
Texans @ Ravens, Ravens win
Giants @ 49ers, 49ers win
Falcons @ Packers, Packers win

Conference Week:
Ravens @ Jets, Ravens win (by a point)
Packers @ 49ers, 49ers win (by 3)

Superbowl
Ravens beat 49ers 16-14

History of superbowl winner:
Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49ers, 9-Steelers, 10-Ravens
History of superbowl loser:
Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers, 9-49ers, 10-49ers

Week 9 Analysis

Worst week so far. 7/14.  Lots of upsets this weekend.  Looking to bounce back in week 10

Week 9 Projections

San Diego over Green Bay?  Who knows...

Season Projections:

Teams on the rise:
Dolphins 1-2, Patriots 11-12 (despite losing), Jets 11-12, Chiefs 6-7, Bengals 11-12, Eagles 9-10, Rams 0-3, Lions 11-12, Vikings 3-4,  Falcons 9-10, Bucs 5-6

Teams on the decline:
Chargers 12-10, Cowboys 10-8, Redskins 8-5, Seahawks 6-4, Bears 10-9, Panthers 7-6, Saints 12-10

Teams staying put:
Bills (10), Broncos (3), Raiders (6), Ravens (12), Browns (5), Steelers (12), Texans (12), Colts (0), Jaguars (5), Titans (8), Giants (9), Cardinals (5), 49ers (14), Packers (13)

Playoff projection:

AFC Teams by Seed:
1-Steelers, 2-Patriots, 3-Texans, 4-Chargers, 5-Ravens, 6-Jets
NFC Teams by Seed:
1-49ers, 2-Packers, 3-Eagles, 4-Falcons, 5-Lions, 6-Saints

Wild Card week:
Jets @ Texans, Texans win
Ravens @ Chargers, Ravens win
Lions @ Falcons, Lions win
Saints @ Eagles, Eagles win

Division week:
Texans @ Patriots, Patriots win
Ravens @ Steelers, Steelers win
Lions @ 49ers, 49ers win
Eagles @ Packers, Packers win

Conference week:
Patriots @ Steelers, Steelers win
Packers @ 49ers, 49ers win

Superbowl:
Steelers vs 49ers, Steelers win 16-15

Just a reversal of last week's scores.  Actual scores were 15.3-15.5, but in the Steelers favor this time.

History of projected superbowl winner:
Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49ers, 9-Steelers
History of projected superbowl loser:
Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers, 9-49ers

Week 8 Anaylsis

10/13 games right and a fumbled exchange in the monday night game away from being 11/13.  Oh well.