Superbowl Projection

As embarrassed as I am from getting both games wrong last week, I couldn't bare to look at my program until now.  So, anyway, here's what I got for the Superbowl:

I now have an entire offseason to consider adjustments for next year and to maybe make the data more presentable.

I don't even know if I can bare to watch this Superbowl honestly.

Conference Projections

3/4 correct last week.  Hard to pick the Giants in any play off games because their defense is statistically horrible.

With the loss of the Packers, I now have a rematch of the Harbowl projected as the super bowl.  Should this one be called the SuHarBowl?

I've got the Ravens narrowly winning both of their games, meaning they could easily lose either one of them.  It all depends on which Joe Flacco shows up the remaining two games.

Divisional Play Off Projections

2/4 Last week.  Didn't see Denver winning.  The projections don't see them winning this week either.  With Pittsburgh out, I have the Ravens as the new projected SB winner.

As a 49ers fan, I'm terrified of the Saints.  The program has the Niners winning, but it will be one tough game.  I nailed the Saints/Lions score last week and have had a pretty good bead on them for most of the season.  So,  I'm hopeful the trend continues.  I know 19 points seems low for the Saints, but the Niners have allowed an average of 8.5 points/game at home.  An incredible feat.

Playoff Possibilities

For those of you unaware of who goes where when who wins, I made a handy dandy chart in excel real quick:

Projections for entire post season

I will update this after each week, because the odds of getting all 10 games prior to the super bowl correct is slim.  Either way, as of right now, these are my calculated projections.  Depending on how Baltimore and Pittsburgh do the next two weeks, the projection for their game, if they are to play, could easily change.

More season analysis

This is the number of wins predicted for the season, by week compared to the actual final record of each team.

Week---Average Difference (absolute value)---Team Records Predicted Correctly---Within 1 win---Within 2 wins

1---2.656---7---11---16
2---2.469---3---12---18
3---2.250---9---13---18
4---2.188---5---11---19
5---2.281---3---13---20
6---1.938---8---15---23
7---1.875---5---17---23
8---1.688---6---17---25
9---1.719---7---15---24
10--1.625---7---19---22
11--1.500---8---19---25
12--1.188---12--21---27
13--1.125---13--21---27
14--0.875---16--24---28
15--0.719---17--26---30 (Texans & Broncos)
16--0.563---18--28---32
17--0.313---22--32---32

Using all my data, I made a formula, which I think shows a teams improvement or decline over the season.

A positive number indicates improvement while a negative number indicates getting worse.  0 would be almost no change at all from the start of this year.  Keep in mind if a good team is negative, that it is in comparison to itself, not an average team.  Same goes with a bad team being positive.  Anything between -1 and +1 is pretty minimal.  This is really to show the extremes.  Now you can really see how much of an underachiever the Jets were this year.

So, without further ado... teams from biggest decline to most improved:

32. Jets: -3.176
31. Buccaneers: -2.118
30. Chargers: -1.765
29. Redskins: -1.471
28. Bears: -1.412
27. Bills: -1.353
26. Cowboys: -1.118
25. Texans: -1
24. Eagles: -0.824
23. Browns: -0.706
22. Ravens: -0.647
21. Steelers: -0.588
20. Vikings: -0.529
19t. Lions: -0.412
19t. Rams: -0.412
17. Bengals: -0.353
16. Titans: -0.118
15. Jaguars: 0
14. Colts: 0.118
13. Falcons: 0.235
12t. Raiders: 0.529
12t. Giants: 0.529
10. 49ers: 0.706
9. Patriots: 0.941
8. Packers: 1.059
7. Saints: 1.176
6t. Chiefs: 1.765
6t. Seahawks: 1.765
4. Panthers: 2.118
3. Dolphins: 2.235
2. Cardinals: 2.294
1. Broncos: 3.647

Season Analysis

11/16 correct for week 17.

Here are the number of game winners predicted correctly by week:
1-10/16
2-11/16
3-11/16
4-12/16
5-10/13
6-10/13
7-6/13
8-10/13
9-7/14
10-7/16
11-9/14
12-13/16
13-10/16
14-12/16
15-9/16
16-11/16
17-11/16

A total of 169/256 for a 169-87 record.  This is good enough to beat all ESPN analysts, but still lose to Accuscore by 5 games and Pigskin Pick 'em by 3.  Source:  http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

If you look at the middle of the season, the accuracy was getting worse.  I made an adjustment after week 10 when I realized the calculation was giving too much of an edge to home teams and you can see the accuracy picked back up.  I ran the new calculation with all the previous games and I would have gotten 178 correct.  That, of course, doesn't count.  Next year, I plan on giving Accuscore a run for it's money!

Here we go...  All stats are projections prior to that week occurring.  Any projections that were the final actual are bolded.

Note: I had started doing each stat for each week and it took me 3 hours to just finish the AFC East.. so I just did projected # of wins.  I'm not getting paid for this and I work alone, so deal with it.

AFC East:
Buffalo Bills
Projected # of wins by week
2,6,6,8,9,10,10,10,10,9,9,6,6,6,6,6,6-Actual: 6, High: 10, Low: 2

Miami Dolphins
Projected # of wins by week:
6,4,4,4,3,2,2,1,2,2,2,4,6,6,6,5,5-Actual: 6, High: 6, Low: 1

New England Patriots
Projected # of wins by week:
11,12,12,11,11,11,11,11,12,11,13,13,13,13,13,13,13-Actual: 13, High: 13, Low: 11

New York Jets
Projected # of wins:
11,12,12,12,10,11,11,11,12,13,12,11,11,11,11,10,9-Actual: 8, High: 13, Low: 9.  Severe underachievers!

AFC West
Denver Broncos
Projected # of wins:
1,0,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,9,9-Actual: 8, High: 9, Low: 0

Kansas City Chiefs
Projected # of wins:
7,5,4,3,4,5,4,6,7,7,5,5,4,5,5,7,6-Actual: 7, High: 7, Low: 3

Oakland Raiders
Projected # of wins:
9,8,8,10,7,7,9,6,6,5,6,7,8,8,8,7,8-Actual: 8, High: 10, Low: 5

San Diego Chargers:
Projected # of wins:
11,13,12,11,13,13,12,12,10,9,7,7,6,7,7,8,8-Actual: 8, High: 13, Low: 6

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Projected # of wins:
12,14,12,13,13,13,13,12,12,12,13,13,13,13,13,12,12-Actual: 12, High: 14, Low: 12

Cincinnati Bengals
Projected # of wins:
6,8,9,8,10,10,10,11,12,12,9,9,9,9,9,9,9-Actual: 9, High: 12, Low: 6

Cleveland Browns
Projected # of wins:
6,5,6,6,5,5,5,5,5,5,3,4,4,4,4,4,4-Actual: 4, High: 6, Low: 3

Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected # of wins:
16,13,15,15,12,12,12,12,12,11,12,12,12,12,12,12,12-Actual: 12, High: 16, Low: 11

AFC South
Houston Texans
Projected # of wins:
5,9,9,8,11,11,10,12,12,12,13,13,13,13,13,12,11-Actual: 10, High: 13, Low: 5.  Loss of Schaub crippled them

Indianapolis Colts
Projected # of wins:
7,6,5,5,3,2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,2-Actual: 2, High: 7, low: 0

Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected # of wins:
5,7,5,5,2,3,3,5,5,6,7,6,6,5,5,5,5-Actual: 5, High: 7, Low: 2

Tennessee Titans
Projected # of wins:
9,8,9,9,11,11,11,8,8,8,9,10,10,9,9,8,8-Actual: 9, High: 11, Low: 8

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Projected # of wins:
6,7,8,8,8,8,8,10,8,8,12,12,12,11,10,10,9-Actual: 8, High: 12, Low: 6

New York Giants
Projected # of wins:
10,8,9,10,10,9,8,9,9,10,8,7,7,7,8,7,8-Actual: 9, High: 10, Low: 7

Philadelphia Eagles
Projected # of wins:
12,14,13,10,9,8,9,9,10,9,7,8,6,5,6,7,8-Actual: 8, High: 14, Low: 5

Washington Redskins
Projected # of wins:
5,6,6,8,11,12,10,8,5,5,4,4,5,5,5,6,5-Actual: 5, High: 12, Low: 4

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Projected # of wins:
4,6,5,5,6,5,6,5,5,5,6,5,6,7,7,7,7-Actual: 8, High: 7, Low: 4

San Francisco 49ers
Projected # of wins:
8,10,8,10,11,12,13,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,13,13,13-Actual: 13, High: 14, Low: 8

Seattle Seahawks
Projected # of wins:
5,4,3,3,3,4,6,6,4,4,6,7,5,6,7,8,8-Actual: 7, High: 8, Low: 3

St. Louis Rams
Projected # of wins:
5,5,5,2,2,2,0,0,3,3,2,2,2,2,2,2,2-Actual: 2, High: 5, Low: 0

NFC North
Chicago Bears
Projected # of wins:
9,12,10,9,6,6,8,10,9,11,12,12,11,10,9,8,8-Actual: 8, High: 12, Low: 6

Detroit Lions
Projected # of wins:
4,7,12,12,13,14,11,11,12,11,10,10,10,10,10,10,10-Actual: 10, High: 14, Low: 4

Green Bay Packers
Projected # of wins:
12,12,11,12,13,13,14,13,13,14,16,16,16,16,16,15,15-Actual: 15, High: 16, Low: 11

Minnesota Vikings
Projected # of wins:
5,6,4,3,4,4,4,3,4,4,4,3,3,2,2,2,3-Actual: 3, High: 6, Low: 2

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Projected # of wins:
10,10,10,9,7,10,9,10,11,10,10,10,10,10,10,10-Actual: 10, High: 11, Low: 7

Carolina Panthers
Projected # of wins:
0,0,0,2,2,4,3,7,6,5,5,5,5,5,5,6,6-Actual: 6, High: 7, Low: 0

New Orleans Saints
Projected # of wins:
12,11,12,12,12,13,11,12,10,10,11,11,12,13,13,13,13, High: 13, Low: 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected # of wins:
10,7,9,9,10,6,8,5,6,6,4,4,4,4,4,4,4-Actual: 4, High: 10, Low: 4