Season Analysis

11/16 correct for week 17.

Here are the number of game winners predicted correctly by week:
1-10/16
2-11/16
3-11/16
4-12/16
5-10/13
6-10/13
7-6/13
8-10/13
9-7/14
10-7/16
11-9/14
12-13/16
13-10/16
14-12/16
15-9/16
16-11/16
17-11/16

A total of 169/256 for a 169-87 record.  This is good enough to beat all ESPN analysts, but still lose to Accuscore by 5 games and Pigskin Pick 'em by 3.  Source:  http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

If you look at the middle of the season, the accuracy was getting worse.  I made an adjustment after week 10 when I realized the calculation was giving too much of an edge to home teams and you can see the accuracy picked back up.  I ran the new calculation with all the previous games and I would have gotten 178 correct.  That, of course, doesn't count.  Next year, I plan on giving Accuscore a run for it's money!

Here we go...  All stats are projections prior to that week occurring.  Any projections that were the final actual are bolded.

Note: I had started doing each stat for each week and it took me 3 hours to just finish the AFC East.. so I just did projected # of wins.  I'm not getting paid for this and I work alone, so deal with it.

AFC East:
Buffalo Bills
Projected # of wins by week
2,6,6,8,9,10,10,10,10,9,9,6,6,6,6,6,6-Actual: 6, High: 10, Low: 2

Miami Dolphins
Projected # of wins by week:
6,4,4,4,3,2,2,1,2,2,2,4,6,6,6,5,5-Actual: 6, High: 6, Low: 1

New England Patriots
Projected # of wins by week:
11,12,12,11,11,11,11,11,12,11,13,13,13,13,13,13,13-Actual: 13, High: 13, Low: 11

New York Jets
Projected # of wins:
11,12,12,12,10,11,11,11,12,13,12,11,11,11,11,10,9-Actual: 8, High: 13, Low: 9.  Severe underachievers!

AFC West
Denver Broncos
Projected # of wins:
1,0,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,9,9-Actual: 8, High: 9, Low: 0

Kansas City Chiefs
Projected # of wins:
7,5,4,3,4,5,4,6,7,7,5,5,4,5,5,7,6-Actual: 7, High: 7, Low: 3

Oakland Raiders
Projected # of wins:
9,8,8,10,7,7,9,6,6,5,6,7,8,8,8,7,8-Actual: 8, High: 10, Low: 5

San Diego Chargers:
Projected # of wins:
11,13,12,11,13,13,12,12,10,9,7,7,6,7,7,8,8-Actual: 8, High: 13, Low: 6

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Projected # of wins:
12,14,12,13,13,13,13,12,12,12,13,13,13,13,13,12,12-Actual: 12, High: 14, Low: 12

Cincinnati Bengals
Projected # of wins:
6,8,9,8,10,10,10,11,12,12,9,9,9,9,9,9,9-Actual: 9, High: 12, Low: 6

Cleveland Browns
Projected # of wins:
6,5,6,6,5,5,5,5,5,5,3,4,4,4,4,4,4-Actual: 4, High: 6, Low: 3

Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected # of wins:
16,13,15,15,12,12,12,12,12,11,12,12,12,12,12,12,12-Actual: 12, High: 16, Low: 11

AFC South
Houston Texans
Projected # of wins:
5,9,9,8,11,11,10,12,12,12,13,13,13,13,13,12,11-Actual: 10, High: 13, Low: 5.  Loss of Schaub crippled them

Indianapolis Colts
Projected # of wins:
7,6,5,5,3,2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,2-Actual: 2, High: 7, low: 0

Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected # of wins:
5,7,5,5,2,3,3,5,5,6,7,6,6,5,5,5,5-Actual: 5, High: 7, Low: 2

Tennessee Titans
Projected # of wins:
9,8,9,9,11,11,11,8,8,8,9,10,10,9,9,8,8-Actual: 9, High: 11, Low: 8

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Projected # of wins:
6,7,8,8,8,8,8,10,8,8,12,12,12,11,10,10,9-Actual: 8, High: 12, Low: 6

New York Giants
Projected # of wins:
10,8,9,10,10,9,8,9,9,10,8,7,7,7,8,7,8-Actual: 9, High: 10, Low: 7

Philadelphia Eagles
Projected # of wins:
12,14,13,10,9,8,9,9,10,9,7,8,6,5,6,7,8-Actual: 8, High: 14, Low: 5

Washington Redskins
Projected # of wins:
5,6,6,8,11,12,10,8,5,5,4,4,5,5,5,6,5-Actual: 5, High: 12, Low: 4

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Projected # of wins:
4,6,5,5,6,5,6,5,5,5,6,5,6,7,7,7,7-Actual: 8, High: 7, Low: 4

San Francisco 49ers
Projected # of wins:
8,10,8,10,11,12,13,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,13,13,13-Actual: 13, High: 14, Low: 8

Seattle Seahawks
Projected # of wins:
5,4,3,3,3,4,6,6,4,4,6,7,5,6,7,8,8-Actual: 7, High: 8, Low: 3

St. Louis Rams
Projected # of wins:
5,5,5,2,2,2,0,0,3,3,2,2,2,2,2,2,2-Actual: 2, High: 5, Low: 0

NFC North
Chicago Bears
Projected # of wins:
9,12,10,9,6,6,8,10,9,11,12,12,11,10,9,8,8-Actual: 8, High: 12, Low: 6

Detroit Lions
Projected # of wins:
4,7,12,12,13,14,11,11,12,11,10,10,10,10,10,10,10-Actual: 10, High: 14, Low: 4

Green Bay Packers
Projected # of wins:
12,12,11,12,13,13,14,13,13,14,16,16,16,16,16,15,15-Actual: 15, High: 16, Low: 11

Minnesota Vikings
Projected # of wins:
5,6,4,3,4,4,4,3,4,4,4,3,3,2,2,2,3-Actual: 3, High: 6, Low: 2

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Projected # of wins:
10,10,10,9,7,10,9,10,11,10,10,10,10,10,10,10-Actual: 10, High: 11, Low: 7

Carolina Panthers
Projected # of wins:
0,0,0,2,2,4,3,7,6,5,5,5,5,5,5,6,6-Actual: 6, High: 7, Low: 0

New Orleans Saints
Projected # of wins:
12,11,12,12,12,13,11,12,10,10,11,11,12,13,13,13,13, High: 13, Low: 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected # of wins:
10,7,9,9,10,6,8,5,6,6,4,4,4,4,4,4,4-Actual: 4, High: 10, Low: 4