11/16 correct for week 17.
Here are the number of game winners predicted correctly by week:
1-10/16
2-11/16
3-11/16
4-12/16
5-10/13
6-10/13
7-6/13
8-10/13
9-7/14
10-7/16
11-9/14
12-13/16
13-10/16
14-12/16
15-9/16
16-11/16
17-11/16
A total of 169/256 for a 169-87 record. This is good enough to beat all ESPN analysts, but still lose to Accuscore by 5 games and Pigskin Pick 'em by 3. Source:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks
If you look at the middle of the season, the accuracy was getting worse. I made an adjustment after week 10 when I realized the calculation was giving too much of an edge to home teams and you can see the accuracy picked back up. I ran the new calculation with all the previous games and I would have gotten 178 correct. That, of course, doesn't count. Next year, I plan on giving Accuscore a run for it's money!
Here we go... All stats are projections prior to that week occurring. Any projections that were the final actual are bolded.
Note: I had started doing each stat for each week and it took me 3 hours to just finish the AFC East.. so I just did projected # of wins. I'm not getting paid for this and I work alone, so deal with it.
AFC East:
Buffalo Bills
Projected # of wins by week
2,
6,6,8,9,10,10,10,10,9,9,
6,6,6,6,6,6-Actual: 6, High: 10, Low: 2
Miami Dolphins
Projected # of wins by week:
6,4,4,4,3,2,2,1,2,2,2,4,
6,6,6,5,5-Actual: 6, High: 6, Low: 1
New England Patriots
Projected # of wins by week:
11,12,12,11,11,11,11,11,12,11,
13,13,13,13,13,13,13-Actual: 13, High: 13, Low: 11
New York Jets
Projected # of wins:
11,12,12,12,10,11,11,11,12,13,12,11,11,11,11,10,9-Actual: 8, High: 13, Low: 9. Severe underachievers!
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Projected # of wins:
1,0,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,6,7,
8,9,9,9-Actual: 8, High: 9, Low: 0
Kansas City Chiefs
Projected # of wins:
7,5,4,3,4,5,4,6,
7,7,5,5,4,5,5,
7,6-Actual: 7, High: 7, Low: 3
Oakland Raiders
Projected # of wins:
9,
8,8,10,7,7,9,6,6,5,6,7,
8,8,8,7,
8-Actual: 8, High: 10, Low: 5
San Diego Chargers:
Projected # of wins:
11,13,12,11,13,13,12,12,10,9,7,7,6,7,7,
8,8-Actual: 8, High: 13, Low: 6
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Projected # of wins:
12,14,
12,13,13,13,13,
12,12,12,13,13,13,13,13,
12,12-Actual: 12, High: 14, Low: 12
Cincinnati Bengals
Projected # of wins:
6,8,
9,8,10,10,10,11,12,12,
9,9,9,9,9,9,9-Actual: 9, High: 12, Low: 6
Cleveland Browns
Projected # of wins:
6,5,6,6,5,5,5,5,5,5,3,
4,4,4,4,4,4-Actual: 4, High: 6, Low: 3
Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected # of wins:
16,13,15,15,
12,12,12,12,12,11,
12,12,12,12,12,12,12-Actual: 12, High: 16, Low: 11
AFC South
Houston Texans
Projected # of wins:
5,9,9,8,11,11,
10,12,12,12,13,13,13,13,13,12,11-Actual: 10, High: 13, Low: 5. Loss of Schaub crippled them
Indianapolis Colts
Projected # of wins:
7,6,5,5,3,
2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,
2-Actual: 2, High: 7, low: 0
Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected # of wins:
5,7,
5,5,2,3,3,
5,5,6,7,6,6,
5,5,5,5-Actual: 5, High: 7, Low: 2
Tennessee Titans
Projected # of wins:
9,8,
9,9,11,11,11,8,8,8,
9,10,10,
9,9,8,8-Actual: 9, High: 11, Low: 8
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Projected # of wins:
6,7,
8,8,8,8,8,10,
8,8,12,12,12,11,10,10,9-Actual: 8, High: 12, Low: 6
New York Giants
Projected # of wins:
10,8,
9,10,10,
9,8,
9,9,10,8,7,7,7,8,7,8-Actual: 9, High: 10, Low: 7
Philadelphia Eagles
Projected # of wins:
12,14,13,10,9,
8,9,9,10,9,7,
8,6,5,6,7,
8-Actual: 8, High: 14, Low: 5
Washington Redskins
Projected # of wins:
5,6,6,8,11,12,10,8,
5,5,4,4,
5,5,5,6,
5-Actual: 5, High: 12, Low: 4
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Projected # of wins:
4,6,5,5,6,5,6,5,5,5,6,5,6,7,7,7,7-Actual: 8, High: 7, Low: 4
San Francisco 49ers
Projected # of wins:
8,10,8,10,11,12,
13,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,
13,13,13-Actual: 13, High: 14, Low: 8
Seattle Seahawks
Projected # of wins:
5,4,3,3,3,4,6,6,4,4,6,
7,5,6,
7,8,8-Actual: 7, High: 8, Low: 3
St. Louis Rams
Projected # of wins:
5,5,5,
2,2,2,0,0,3,3,
2,2,2,2,2,2,2-Actual: 2, High: 5, Low: 0
NFC North
Chicago Bears
Projected # of wins:
9,12,10,9,6,6,
8,10,9,11,12,12,11,10,9,
8,8-Actual: 8, High: 12, Low: 6
Detroit Lions
Projected # of wins:
4,7,12,12,13,14,11,11,12,11,
10,10,10,10,10,10,10-Actual: 10, High: 14, Low: 4
Green Bay Packers
Projected # of wins:
12,12,11,12,13,13,14,13,13,14,16,16,16,16,16,
15,15-Actual: 15, High: 16, Low: 11
Minnesota Vikings
Projected # of wins:
5,6,4,3,4,4,4,
3,4,4,4,
3,3,2,2,2,
3-Actual: 3, High: 6, Low: 2
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Projected # of wins:
10,10,10,9,7,10,9,
10,11,
10,10,10,10,10,10,10-Actual: 10, High: 11, Low: 7
Carolina Panthers
Projected # of wins:
0,0,0,2,2,4,3,7,
6,5,5,5,5,5,5,
6,6-Actual: 6, High: 7, Low: 0
New Orleans Saints
Projected # of wins:
12,11,12,12,12,
13,11,12,10,10,11,11,12,
13,13,13,13, High: 13, Low: 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected # of wins:
10,7,9,9,10,6,8,5,6,6,
4,4,4,4,4,4,4-Actual: 4, High: 10, Low: 4