Superbowl Projection

As embarrassed as I am from getting both games wrong last week, I couldn't bare to look at my program until now.  So, anyway, here's what I got for the Superbowl:

I now have an entire offseason to consider adjustments for next year and to maybe make the data more presentable.

I don't even know if I can bare to watch this Superbowl honestly.

Conference Projections

3/4 correct last week.  Hard to pick the Giants in any play off games because their defense is statistically horrible.

With the loss of the Packers, I now have a rematch of the Harbowl projected as the super bowl.  Should this one be called the SuHarBowl?

I've got the Ravens narrowly winning both of their games, meaning they could easily lose either one of them.  It all depends on which Joe Flacco shows up the remaining two games.

Divisional Play Off Projections

2/4 Last week.  Didn't see Denver winning.  The projections don't see them winning this week either.  With Pittsburgh out, I have the Ravens as the new projected SB winner.

As a 49ers fan, I'm terrified of the Saints.  The program has the Niners winning, but it will be one tough game.  I nailed the Saints/Lions score last week and have had a pretty good bead on them for most of the season.  So,  I'm hopeful the trend continues.  I know 19 points seems low for the Saints, but the Niners have allowed an average of 8.5 points/game at home.  An incredible feat.

Playoff Possibilities

For those of you unaware of who goes where when who wins, I made a handy dandy chart in excel real quick:

Projections for entire post season

I will update this after each week, because the odds of getting all 10 games prior to the super bowl correct is slim.  Either way, as of right now, these are my calculated projections.  Depending on how Baltimore and Pittsburgh do the next two weeks, the projection for their game, if they are to play, could easily change.

More season analysis

This is the number of wins predicted for the season, by week compared to the actual final record of each team.

Week---Average Difference (absolute value)---Team Records Predicted Correctly---Within 1 win---Within 2 wins

1---2.656---7---11---16
2---2.469---3---12---18
3---2.250---9---13---18
4---2.188---5---11---19
5---2.281---3---13---20
6---1.938---8---15---23
7---1.875---5---17---23
8---1.688---6---17---25
9---1.719---7---15---24
10--1.625---7---19---22
11--1.500---8---19---25
12--1.188---12--21---27
13--1.125---13--21---27
14--0.875---16--24---28
15--0.719---17--26---30 (Texans & Broncos)
16--0.563---18--28---32
17--0.313---22--32---32

Using all my data, I made a formula, which I think shows a teams improvement or decline over the season.

A positive number indicates improvement while a negative number indicates getting worse.  0 would be almost no change at all from the start of this year.  Keep in mind if a good team is negative, that it is in comparison to itself, not an average team.  Same goes with a bad team being positive.  Anything between -1 and +1 is pretty minimal.  This is really to show the extremes.  Now you can really see how much of an underachiever the Jets were this year.

So, without further ado... teams from biggest decline to most improved:

32. Jets: -3.176
31. Buccaneers: -2.118
30. Chargers: -1.765
29. Redskins: -1.471
28. Bears: -1.412
27. Bills: -1.353
26. Cowboys: -1.118
25. Texans: -1
24. Eagles: -0.824
23. Browns: -0.706
22. Ravens: -0.647
21. Steelers: -0.588
20. Vikings: -0.529
19t. Lions: -0.412
19t. Rams: -0.412
17. Bengals: -0.353
16. Titans: -0.118
15. Jaguars: 0
14. Colts: 0.118
13. Falcons: 0.235
12t. Raiders: 0.529
12t. Giants: 0.529
10. 49ers: 0.706
9. Patriots: 0.941
8. Packers: 1.059
7. Saints: 1.176
6t. Chiefs: 1.765
6t. Seahawks: 1.765
4. Panthers: 2.118
3. Dolphins: 2.235
2. Cardinals: 2.294
1. Broncos: 3.647

Season Analysis

11/16 correct for week 17.

Here are the number of game winners predicted correctly by week:
1-10/16
2-11/16
3-11/16
4-12/16
5-10/13
6-10/13
7-6/13
8-10/13
9-7/14
10-7/16
11-9/14
12-13/16
13-10/16
14-12/16
15-9/16
16-11/16
17-11/16

A total of 169/256 for a 169-87 record.  This is good enough to beat all ESPN analysts, but still lose to Accuscore by 5 games and Pigskin Pick 'em by 3.  Source:  http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

If you look at the middle of the season, the accuracy was getting worse.  I made an adjustment after week 10 when I realized the calculation was giving too much of an edge to home teams and you can see the accuracy picked back up.  I ran the new calculation with all the previous games and I would have gotten 178 correct.  That, of course, doesn't count.  Next year, I plan on giving Accuscore a run for it's money!

Here we go...  All stats are projections prior to that week occurring.  Any projections that were the final actual are bolded.

Note: I had started doing each stat for each week and it took me 3 hours to just finish the AFC East.. so I just did projected # of wins.  I'm not getting paid for this and I work alone, so deal with it.

AFC East:
Buffalo Bills
Projected # of wins by week
2,6,6,8,9,10,10,10,10,9,9,6,6,6,6,6,6-Actual: 6, High: 10, Low: 2

Miami Dolphins
Projected # of wins by week:
6,4,4,4,3,2,2,1,2,2,2,4,6,6,6,5,5-Actual: 6, High: 6, Low: 1

New England Patriots
Projected # of wins by week:
11,12,12,11,11,11,11,11,12,11,13,13,13,13,13,13,13-Actual: 13, High: 13, Low: 11

New York Jets
Projected # of wins:
11,12,12,12,10,11,11,11,12,13,12,11,11,11,11,10,9-Actual: 8, High: 13, Low: 9.  Severe underachievers!

AFC West
Denver Broncos
Projected # of wins:
1,0,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,9,9-Actual: 8, High: 9, Low: 0

Kansas City Chiefs
Projected # of wins:
7,5,4,3,4,5,4,6,7,7,5,5,4,5,5,7,6-Actual: 7, High: 7, Low: 3

Oakland Raiders
Projected # of wins:
9,8,8,10,7,7,9,6,6,5,6,7,8,8,8,7,8-Actual: 8, High: 10, Low: 5

San Diego Chargers:
Projected # of wins:
11,13,12,11,13,13,12,12,10,9,7,7,6,7,7,8,8-Actual: 8, High: 13, Low: 6

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Projected # of wins:
12,14,12,13,13,13,13,12,12,12,13,13,13,13,13,12,12-Actual: 12, High: 14, Low: 12

Cincinnati Bengals
Projected # of wins:
6,8,9,8,10,10,10,11,12,12,9,9,9,9,9,9,9-Actual: 9, High: 12, Low: 6

Cleveland Browns
Projected # of wins:
6,5,6,6,5,5,5,5,5,5,3,4,4,4,4,4,4-Actual: 4, High: 6, Low: 3

Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected # of wins:
16,13,15,15,12,12,12,12,12,11,12,12,12,12,12,12,12-Actual: 12, High: 16, Low: 11

AFC South
Houston Texans
Projected # of wins:
5,9,9,8,11,11,10,12,12,12,13,13,13,13,13,12,11-Actual: 10, High: 13, Low: 5.  Loss of Schaub crippled them

Indianapolis Colts
Projected # of wins:
7,6,5,5,3,2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,2-Actual: 2, High: 7, low: 0

Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected # of wins:
5,7,5,5,2,3,3,5,5,6,7,6,6,5,5,5,5-Actual: 5, High: 7, Low: 2

Tennessee Titans
Projected # of wins:
9,8,9,9,11,11,11,8,8,8,9,10,10,9,9,8,8-Actual: 9, High: 11, Low: 8

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Projected # of wins:
6,7,8,8,8,8,8,10,8,8,12,12,12,11,10,10,9-Actual: 8, High: 12, Low: 6

New York Giants
Projected # of wins:
10,8,9,10,10,9,8,9,9,10,8,7,7,7,8,7,8-Actual: 9, High: 10, Low: 7

Philadelphia Eagles
Projected # of wins:
12,14,13,10,9,8,9,9,10,9,7,8,6,5,6,7,8-Actual: 8, High: 14, Low: 5

Washington Redskins
Projected # of wins:
5,6,6,8,11,12,10,8,5,5,4,4,5,5,5,6,5-Actual: 5, High: 12, Low: 4

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Projected # of wins:
4,6,5,5,6,5,6,5,5,5,6,5,6,7,7,7,7-Actual: 8, High: 7, Low: 4

San Francisco 49ers
Projected # of wins:
8,10,8,10,11,12,13,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,13,13,13-Actual: 13, High: 14, Low: 8

Seattle Seahawks
Projected # of wins:
5,4,3,3,3,4,6,6,4,4,6,7,5,6,7,8,8-Actual: 7, High: 8, Low: 3

St. Louis Rams
Projected # of wins:
5,5,5,2,2,2,0,0,3,3,2,2,2,2,2,2,2-Actual: 2, High: 5, Low: 0

NFC North
Chicago Bears
Projected # of wins:
9,12,10,9,6,6,8,10,9,11,12,12,11,10,9,8,8-Actual: 8, High: 12, Low: 6

Detroit Lions
Projected # of wins:
4,7,12,12,13,14,11,11,12,11,10,10,10,10,10,10,10-Actual: 10, High: 14, Low: 4

Green Bay Packers
Projected # of wins:
12,12,11,12,13,13,14,13,13,14,16,16,16,16,16,15,15-Actual: 15, High: 16, Low: 11

Minnesota Vikings
Projected # of wins:
5,6,4,3,4,4,4,3,4,4,4,3,3,2,2,2,3-Actual: 3, High: 6, Low: 2

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Projected # of wins:
10,10,10,9,7,10,9,10,11,10,10,10,10,10,10,10-Actual: 10, High: 11, Low: 7

Carolina Panthers
Projected # of wins:
0,0,0,2,2,4,3,7,6,5,5,5,5,5,5,6,6-Actual: 6, High: 7, Low: 0

New Orleans Saints
Projected # of wins:
12,11,12,12,12,13,11,12,10,10,11,11,12,13,13,13,13, High: 13, Low: 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected # of wins:
10,7,9,9,10,6,8,5,6,6,4,4,4,4,4,4,4-Actual: 4, High: 10, Low: 4

Week 17 Projections

11/16 correct last week

I have the Cowboys barely squeeking into the playoffs as well as the Jets.  That hasn't changed since last week despite both of them losing.

Season projections:

It's looking like the projection made in week 10 that the Bucs would lose the rest of their games and finish with 4 wins was actually true.  I got Brees finishing with exactly 5300 yards.  Keep in mind these are net yards.  I count negative yards.  They didn't when he broke the record.  Ah well.

Anyway, updated play offs which have the same seeding as last week... The main difference is that the Steelers beat the Ravens in the AFC Championship game and win it all.  Back to the original projections from week 1!  How about that?

AFC Teams by Seed:

1-Patriots, 2-Ravens, 3-Texans, 4-Broncos, 5-Steelers, 6-Jets

NFC Teams by Seed:

1-Packers, 2-49ers, 3-Saints, 4-Cowboys, 5-Falcons, 6-Lions

Wild Card Week:

Steelers @ Broncos, Steelers win 23-10

Jets @ Texans, Texans win 25-14

Falcons @ Cowboys, Cowboys win 23-20

Lions @ Saints, Saints win 40-29

Divisional Week:

Steelers @ Patriots, Steelers win 24-18

Texans @ Ravens, Ravens win 17-14

Cowboys @ Packers, Packers win 39-24

Saints @ 49ers, 49ers win 24-17

Conference Week:

Steelers @ Ravens, Steelers win 14-13

49ers @ Packers, Packers win 23-20

Superbowl:

Steelers beat Packers 22-17

History of superbowl winner:

Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49eres, 9-Steelers, 10-Ravens, 11-Ravens, 12-Texans, 13-Ravens, 14-Ravens, 15-Ravens, 16-Ravens, 17-Steelers

History of superbowl loser:

Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers, 9-49ers, 10-49ers, 11-Packers, 12-Packers, 13-Packers, 14-Packers, 15-Packers, 16-Packers, 17-Packers

Week 16 Projections

Lots of upsets last week. 9/16 correct.  Saints vs Vikings game was off by a single point.

Can't really argue with anything other than the Rams scoring 5 points.  More like 3 or 6, but more likely 6 than 3 if that makes any sense.

Season Projections:

Teams on the Rise:

Chiefs 5-7, Chargers 7-8, Colts 0-1, Eagles 6-7, Redskins 5-6, Seahawks 7-8, Panthers 5-6

Teams on the decline:

Jets 11-10, Raiders 8-7, Ravens 13-12, Texans 13-12, Titans 9-8, Giants 8-7, Bears 9-8, Packers 16-15

Teams staying put:

Bills (6), Dolphins (5), Patriots (13), Broncos (9), Bengals (9), Browns (4), Steelers (12), Jaguars (5), Cowboys (10), Cardinals (7), 49ers (13), Rams (2), Lions (10), Vikings (2), Falcons (10), Saints (13), Bucs (4)

Playoffs are basically the same as last week, except New England is the number 1 seed and the conference championship is between baltimore and pittsburgh!

AFC Teams By Seed:

1-Patriots, 2-Ravens, 3-Texans, 4-Broncos, 5-Steelers, 6-Jets

NFC Teams By Seed:

1-Packers, 49ers, Saints, Cowboys, Falcons, Lions

Wild Card Week:

Steelers @ Broncos, Steelers win 22-11

Jets @ Texans, Texans win 26-14

Falcons @ Cowboys, Cowboys win 22-21

Lions @ Saints, Saints win 40-28

Divisional Week

Steelers @ Patriots, Steelers win 24-20

Texans @ Ravens, Ravens win 17-15

Cowboys @ Packers, Packers win 38-25

Saints @ 49ers, 49ers win 25-17

Conference Week

Steelers @ Ravens, Ravens win 14-13

49ers @ Packers, Packers win 23-20

Superbowl

Ravens beat Packers 25-21

History or superbowl winners:

Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49ers, 9-Steelers, 10-Ravens, 11-Ravens, 12-Texans, 13-Ravens, 14-Ravens, 15-Ravens, 16-Ravens
History of superbowl losers:
Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers, 9-49ers, 10-49ers, 11-Packers, 12-Packers, 13-Packers, 14-Packers, 15-Packers, 16-Packers

Week 15 Projections

12/16 correct last week.

All of these look about right except for the Bears over the Seahawks.

Teams on the Rise:

Broncos 8-9, Giants 7-8, Eagles 5-6, Seahawks 6-7

Teams on the Decline:

Dolphins 6-5, Cowboys 11-10, 49ers, 14-13, Bears 10-9

Teams staying put:

Bills (6), Patriots (13), Jets (11), Chiefs (5), Raiders (8), Chargers (7), Ravens (13), Bengals (9), Browns (4), Steelers (12), Texans (13), Colts (0), Jaguars (5), Titans (9), Redskins (5), Cardinals (7), Rams (2), Lions (10), Packers (16), Vikings (2), Falcons (10), Panthers (5), Saints (13), Bucs (4)

Playoffs

AFC Teams By Seed:

1-Ravens, 2-Patriots, 3-Texans, 4-Broncos, 5-Steelers, 6-Jets

NFC Teams By Seed:

1-Packers, 2-49ers, 3-Saints, 4-Cowboys, 5-Falcons, 6-Lions

Since we're getting close to playoff time now, I'll actually post the scores in addition to the winner

Wild Card Week:

Steelers @ Broncos, Steelers win 22-11

Jets @ Texans, Texans win 25-14

Falcons @ Cowboys, Cowboys win 23-21

Lions @ Saints, Saints win 38-29

Divisional Week:

Steelers @ Ravens, Ravens win 15-13

Texans @ Patriots, Texans win 28-22

Cowboys @ Packers, Packers win 43-25

Saints @ 49ers, 49ers win 26-17

Conference Week:

Texans @ Ravens, Ravens win 17-14

49ers @ Packers, Packers win 25-20

Superbowl:

Ravens beat Packers 26-20

History of Superbowl Winner:

Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49ers, 9-Steelers, 10-Ravens, 11-Ravens, 12-Texans, 13-Ravens, 14-Ravens, 15-Ravens

History of Superbowl Lower:

Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers, 9-49ers, 10-49ers, 11-Packers, 12-Packers, 13-Packers, 14-Packers, 15-Packers

Week 14 Projections

10/16 Correct last week.  Chiefs over Bears?  Cardinals over Cowboys?  Really?

Anyway...

Looks about right...

Updated Season Projections:

So I figured out why I didn't have Brees projected to hit 5,000 yards last week... When uploading the pictures of the projections today, I noticed I had the Colts playing twice and the Saints... were missing.  This is the main reason why the Saints gained a win and the Titans lost one.  I of course had to re-run the entire rest of the season and do the playoffs all over again with the updates.  There was no change in the outcome, however.

Teams on the rise:

Broncos 7-8, Chiefs 4-5, Chargers 6-7, Cardinals 6-7, Seahawks 5-6, Saints 12-13

Teams on the decline:

Jaguars 6-5, Titans 10-9, Cowboys 12-11, Eagles 6-5, Bears 11-10, Vikings 3-2

Teams staying put:

Bills (6), Dolphins (6), Patriots (13), Jets (11), Raiders (8), Ravens (13), Bengals (9), Browns (4), Steelers (12), Texans (13), Colts (0),  Giants (7), Redskins (5), 49ers (14), Rams (2), Lions (10), Packers (16), Falcons (10), Panthers (5),  Bucs (4)

Playoffs are almost the same as last week's projections, except this time Denver wins the AFC West and is a one and done... just like the Raiders were.

AFC Teams by Seed:

1-Ravens, 2-Patriots, 3-Texans, 4-Broncos, 5-Steelers, 6-Jets

NFC Teams by Seed:

1-Packers, 2-49ers, 3-Saints, 4-Cowboys, 5-Bears, 6-Falcons

Wild Card Week:

Steelers @ Broncos, Steelers win

Jets @ Texans, Texans win

Bears @ Cowboys, Cowboys win

Falcons @ Saints, Saints win

Divisional Week:

Steelers @ Ravens, Ravens win

Texans @ Patriots, Texans win

Cowboys @ Packers, Packers win

Saints @ 49ers, 49ers win

Conference Week:

Texans @ Ravens, Ravens win

49ers @ Packers, Packers win

Superbowl:

Ravens beat Packers 27-21.  

History of SB Winners by Week:
1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49ers, 9-Steelers, 10-Ravens, 11-Ravens, 12-Texans, 13-Ravens, 14-Ravens
History of SB Losers by Week:
1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers, 9-49ers, 10-49ers, 11-Packers, 12-Packers, 13-Packers, 14-Packers

Week 13 Projections

13/16 last week.  Best so far.

The first 3 games are the most questionable to me... and then there's the Jaguars over the Chargers.  We'll see!

Season Projections:

Teams on the rise:

Dolphins 4-6, Broncos 6-7, Raiders 7-8, Redskins 4-5, Cardinals 5-6, Saints 11-12

Teams on the decline:

Chiefs 5-4, Chargers 7-6, Eagles 8-6, Seahawks 7-5, Bears 12-11

Teams staying put:

Bills (6), Patriots (13), Jets (11), Ravens (13), Bengals (9), Browns (4), Steelers (12), Texans (13), Colts (0), Jaguars (6), Titans (10), Cowboys (12), Giants (7), 49ers (14), Rams (2), Lions (10), Packers (16), Vikings (3), Falcons (10), Panthers (5), Bucs (4)

Despite Brees record passing pace, I still have him throwing less than 5,000 yards based on his upcoming matchups.  I have Brady breaking the record instead.  Crazy, no?

Anyway... Playoffs:

AFC Teams by seed:

1-Ravens, 2-Patriots, 3-Texans, 4-Raiders, 5-Steelers, 6-Jets

NFC Teams by seed:

1-Packers, 2-49ers, 3-Saints, 4-Cowboys, 5-Bears, 6-Falcons

Wild Card Week:

Steelers @ Raiders, Steelers win

Jets @ Texans, Texans win

Bears @ Cowboys, Cowboys win

Falcons @ Saints, Saints win

Divisional Week:

Steelers @ Ravens, Ravens win

Texans @ Patriots, Texans win

Cowboys @ Packers, Packers win

Saints @ 49ers, 49ers win

Conference Week:

Texans @ Ravens, Ravens win

49ers @ Packers, Packers win

Superbowl:

Ravens beat Packers 25-21

History of SB Winners by Week:
1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49ers, 9-Steelers, 10-Ravens, 11-Ravens, 12-Texans, 13-Ravens
History of SB Losers by Week:
1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers, 9-49ers, 10-49ers, 11-Packers, 12-Packers, 13-Packers

Week 12 Projections

I agree with most of this but I think the Niners will win and Detroit will get the upset.  We'll see.

Without further ado, the new season projections:

Teams on the rise:

Dolphins 2-4, Broncos 5-6, Raiders 6-7, Browns 3-4, Titans 9-10, Eagles 7-8, Seahawks 6-7

Teams on the decline:

Bills 9-6, Jets 12-22, Jaguars 7-6, Giants 8-7, Cardinals 6-5, Vikings 4-3

Teams staying put:

Patriots (13), Chiefs (5), Chargers (7), Ravens (13), Bengals (9), Steelers (12), Texans (13), Colts (0), Cowboys (12), 49ers (14), Redskins (4), Rams (2), Bears (12), Lions (10), Packers (16), Falcons (10), Panthers (5), Saints (11), Bucs (4)

Playoff projections:
AFC Teams by seed:
1-Patriots, 2-Ravens, 3-Texans, 4-Raiders, 5-Steelers, 6-Jets
NFC Teams by seed:
1-Packers, 2-49ers, 3-Cowboys, 4-Saints, 5-Bears, 6-Falcons

Wildcard Week:
Steelers @ Raiders, Steelers win
Jets @ Texans, Texans win
Bears @ Saints, Saints win
Falcons @ Cowboys, Cowboys win

Division Week:
Steelers @ Patriots, Steelers win
Texans @ Ravens, Texans win
Saints @ Packers, Packers win
Cowboys @ 49ers, 49ers win

Steelers @ Texans, Texans win
49ers @ Packers, Packers win

Superbowl:
Texans beat Packers 27-21

Like I said last week, this is based off of Houston's stats WITH Matt Shaub.  They had a bye week this week so their stats didn't change.  In fact, their opponents got worse, hence the SB win.  I don't expect it to stay this way as I've seen Matt Leinart plenty of times.  He sucks.

History of superbowl winner:
Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49ers, 9-Steelers, 10-Ravens, 11-Ravens, 12-Texans
History of superbowl loser:
Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers, 9-49ers, 10-49ers, 11-Packers, 12-Packers

Week 11 analysis

9/14 correct.  Getting better, I guess.

Week 11 projections

After the new and improved formulas, this is what I have for the week.  With the old one, it had Green Bay scoring 67 points.  That's when I knew something needed a little tweaking.  Still, 55 points is a LOT.  It projects the Vikings beating the Raiders.  So long as they stick to running the rock with AP, I think this program might be right since Oakland can't stop the run to save their lives.

Anyway, onto the latest season projections.  Green Bay... perfect season, but the superbowl?  Not so much.

Teams on the rise:

Patriots 11-13, Broncos 4-5, Raiders 5-6, Ravens 12-13 (undefeated rest of season?!), Steelers 11-12, Texans 12-13, Jaguars 6-7, Titans 8-9, Cowboys 8-12, Cardinals 5-6, Seahawks 4-6, Bears 11-12, Packers 14-16, Saints 10-11

Teams on the decline:

Jets 13-12, Chiefs 7-5, Chargers 9-7, Bengals 12-9, Browns 5-3, Giants 10-8, Eagles 9-7, Redskins 5-4, Rams 3-2 (despite winning?  huh?), Lions 11-10, Falcons 11-10, Bucs 6-4

Teams staying put:

Bills (9), Dolphins (2), Colts (0), 49ers (14), Vikings (4), Panthers (5)

As you can see, last week along with the new formula really shook things up.  I don't see Baltimore and Houston winning out.  After all these are based on stats WITH Matt Shaub, so look for Houston to potentially crash and burn in the projections over the next few weeks.  I don't see the Bucs losing the rest of the games either, but they really are playing terrible right now and their schedule isn't exactly an easy one so who knows?  I think they'll split with the Panthers, but could potentially lose the other 5 games.

As for my 49ers... 14-2 is looking more and more like a possibilty.  Projections have them losing to Baltimore and beating Pittsburgh.  The other 5 games are against NFC West teams.  I'm thinking 13-3 at worst at this point.

Onto the playoff projections.  Baltimore for the perfect season Packers upset.

AFC Teams by seed:

1-Ravens, 2-Texans, 3-Patriots, 4-Chargers, 5-Steelers, 6-Jets

NFC Teams by seed:

1-Packers, 2-49ers, 3-Cowboys, 4-Saints, 5-Bears, 6-Falcons

Wild Card week:

Steelers @ Chargers, Steelers win

Jets @ Patriots, Patriots win

Bears @ Saints, Saints win

Falcons @ Cowboys, Cowboys win

Divisional week:

Steelers @ Ravens, Ravens win

Patriots @ Texans, Texans win (Again, this is based off of Matt Shaub stats.  There isn't enough to go on for Leinart and this program is based on completely unbiased facts.  I will not enter data that I THINK will represent how the Texans are with a different QB)

Saints @ Packers, Packers win

Cowboys @ 49ers, 49ers win

Conference week:

Texans @ Ravens, Ravens win

49ers @ Packers, Packers win

Superbowl:

Ravens beat the Packers 24-22

History of sueprbowl winner:

Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49ers, 9-Steelers, 10-Ravens, 11-Ravens

History of superbowl loser:

Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers, 9-49ers, 10-49ers, 11-Packers

Yeah, I know the Ravens lost to Seattle.  Statistically speaking, they are still the team to be reckoned with... statistically...

Week 10 Analysis

What the fuck?

7/16 correct.  This just got embarassing.  Seattle beat Baltimore.  Yes, you know it's going to be a bad week of predictions when that happens.

I noticed that my calculations were giving a little too much advantage to home teams, so I scaled down the advantage by about 60%.  This is my only adjustment to my program I've made all season.  Running it this way for the season that's already occurred made it about 20% more accurate.  When I first made this program, I thought it might have been too much.  Turns out I was right.  Lets see how I do from here on out.

Week 10 Projections

55 points for Green Bay?  nah.  Niners beat Giants by 21?  Also, nah.  Bengals over Steelers?  Hmmm.

Teams on the rise:

Jets 12-13, Broncos 3-4, Jaguars 5-6, Giants 9-10, Bears 9-11, Packers 13-14, Falcons 10-11

Teams on the decline:

Bills 10-9, Patriots 12-11, Raiders 6-5, Chargers 10-9, Steelers 12-11, Eagles 10-9, Lions 12-11 (despite being on a bye), Panthers 6-5 (same as Lions)

Teams staying put:

Dolphins (2), Chiefs (7), Ravens (12), Bengals (12), Browns (5), Texans (12), Colts (0), Titans (8), Cowboys (8), Redskins (5), Cardinals (5), 49ers (14), Seahawks (4), Rams (3), Vikings (4), Saints (10), Bucs (6)

Playoff projections
AFC Teams by seed:
1-Jets, 2-Ravens, 3-Texans, 4-Chargers, 5-Bengals, 6-Steelers
NFC Teams by seed:
1-49ers, 2-Packers, 3-Falcons, 4-Giants, 5-Lions, 6-Bears

Wild Card Week:
Bengals @ Chargers, Chargers win
Steelers @ Texans, Texans win
Lions @ Giants, Giants win
Bears @ Falcons, Falcons win

Division Week:
Chargers @ Jets, Jets win
Texans @ Ravens, Ravens win
Giants @ 49ers, 49ers win
Falcons @ Packers, Packers win

Conference Week:
Ravens @ Jets, Ravens win (by a point)
Packers @ 49ers, 49ers win (by 3)

Superbowl
Ravens beat 49ers 16-14

History of superbowl winner:
Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49ers, 9-Steelers, 10-Ravens
History of superbowl loser:
Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers, 9-49ers, 10-49ers

Week 9 Analysis

Worst week so far. 7/14.  Lots of upsets this weekend.  Looking to bounce back in week 10

Week 9 Projections

San Diego over Green Bay?  Who knows...

Season Projections:

Teams on the rise:
Dolphins 1-2, Patriots 11-12 (despite losing), Jets 11-12, Chiefs 6-7, Bengals 11-12, Eagles 9-10, Rams 0-3, Lions 11-12, Vikings 3-4,  Falcons 9-10, Bucs 5-6

Teams on the decline:
Chargers 12-10, Cowboys 10-8, Redskins 8-5, Seahawks 6-4, Bears 10-9, Panthers 7-6, Saints 12-10

Teams staying put:
Bills (10), Broncos (3), Raiders (6), Ravens (12), Browns (5), Steelers (12), Texans (12), Colts (0), Jaguars (5), Titans (8), Giants (9), Cardinals (5), 49ers (14), Packers (13)

Playoff projection:

AFC Teams by Seed:
1-Steelers, 2-Patriots, 3-Texans, 4-Chargers, 5-Ravens, 6-Jets
NFC Teams by Seed:
1-49ers, 2-Packers, 3-Eagles, 4-Falcons, 5-Lions, 6-Saints

Wild Card week:
Jets @ Texans, Texans win
Ravens @ Chargers, Ravens win
Lions @ Falcons, Lions win
Saints @ Eagles, Eagles win

Division week:
Texans @ Patriots, Patriots win
Ravens @ Steelers, Steelers win
Lions @ 49ers, 49ers win
Eagles @ Packers, Packers win

Conference week:
Patriots @ Steelers, Steelers win
Packers @ 49ers, 49ers win

Superbowl:
Steelers vs 49ers, Steelers win 16-15

Just a reversal of last week's scores.  Actual scores were 15.3-15.5, but in the Steelers favor this time.

History of projected superbowl winner:
Week 1-Steelers, 2-Ravens, 3-Steelers, 4-Steelers, 5-Ravens, 6-Ravens, 7-Ravens, 8-49ers, 9-Steelers
History of projected superbowl loser:
Week 1-Packers, 2-Eagles, 3-Lions, 4-Packers, 5-Packers, 6-Lions, 7-Packers, 8-Steelers, 9-49ers

Week 8 Anaylsis

10/13 games right and a fumbled exchange in the monday night game away from being 11/13.  Oh well.