Week 4 Projections

I got nothing this week.  Most of the scores look about right to me, but I don't know if the Packers will run up the score like that.  They are capable of doing so, however.  

New Season Projections:

Despite Detroit winning, their mediocre stats for the week grounded them to being a wildcard team while the Packers are back on top of their division.

Teams on the rise:

Bills 6-8, Raiders, 8-10, Ravens 12-13, Giants 9-10, Redskins 6-8, Niners 8-10, Packers 11-12, Panthers 0-2.

Teams on the decline:

Patriots 12-11, Chiefs 4-3, Chargers 12-11 (despite winning), Bengals 9-8, Texans 9-8, Eagles 13-10, Rams 5-2, Bears 10-9

Teams staying put:

Miami (4), Jets (12), Broncos (2), Browns (6), Steelers (15), Colts (5), Jags (5), Titans(9), Cowboys (8), Cards (5), Seahawks (3), Lions (12), Falcons (10), Saints (12), Bucs (9)

Play off projections-Steelers still on top

AFC Teams by seed:

1-Steelers, 2-Jets, 3-Chargers, 4-Titans, 5-Ravens, 6-Patriots

NFC Teams by seed:

1-Packers, 2-Saints, 3-Eagles, 4-Niners, 5-Lions, 6-Giants

Wild Card week:

Ravens @ Titans, Ravens win

Patriots @ Chargers, Chargers win

Lions @ Niners, Niners win (WHAT?)

Giants @ Eagles, Eagles win

Division week:

Chargers @ Jets, Jets win

Ravens @ Steelers, Steelers win

Niners @ Packers, Packers win

Eagles @ Saints, Saints win

Conference week:

Jets @ Steelers, Steelers win

Saints @ Packers, Packers win

Superbowl:

Steelers beat the Packers 18-15

Week 3 Analysis

11/16 game winners correct and scoring an average of 8 points off.  That's an improvement from 10.6 points.  As expected, the projections are getting more accurate.

Week 3 Projections

I have a lot of disagreements this week...  I think Carolina will win, Niners will win, Jets will win, Falcons will win, Packers will win and Cards will win.  My projections obviously disagree with me though.  All of those games are projected to be close with the exception of the Niners game, so who knows?

These upsets are nothing compared to the crazy new season projections.  Detroit's statistical annihilation of Kansas City has catapulted them to the top of their division and are now projected to make it all the way to the Super Bowl.  Yes, that's right.  Super Bowl bound Detroit Lions.  If Stafford stays healthy and they keep up the good performances, it might stay that way too!

Teams on the rise:
Broncos go from 0 wins to 2, Bengals 8-9, Browns 5-6, Steelers 13-15, Titans 8-9, Cowboys 7-8, Giants 8-9, Lions take a huge leap forward 7-12, Saints 11-12, Bucs 7-9

Teams on the decline:
Chiefs 5-4, Chargers 13-12, Ravens 14-12, Colts 6-5, Jags 7-5, Eagles 14-13, Cardinals 6-5, Niners 10-8 (that's more like it), Seahawks 4-3, Bears 12-10, Packers 12-11 (despite winning, their defense is giving up a LOT of yards & points), Vikings 6-4

Teams staying put:
Bills (6), Dolphins (4), Pats and Jets (12), Raiders (8), Texans (9), Redskins (6), Rams (5), Falcons (10), Panthers (0-for now)

Play off projections-Steelers back on top
As always, I take the latest season projections and pit the play off teams together using the same formulas and project the super bowl winner.

AFC Teams by seed:
1-Steelers, 2-Patriots, 3-Chargers, 4-Titans, 5-Jets, 6-Ravens
NFC Teams by seed:
1-Eagles, 2-Lions, 3-Saints, 4-Niners, 5-Packers, 6-Falcons

Wild Card Week:
Jets @ Titans, Titans Win
Ravens @ Chargers, Chargers Win
Packers @ Niners, Packers Win
Falcons @ Saints, Saints Win

Division Week:
Titans @ Steelers, Steelers Win
Chargers @ Patriots, Patriots Win
Packers @ Eagles, Eagles Win
Saints @ Lions, Lions Win

Conference Week:
Patriots @ Steelers, Steelers Win
Lions @ Eagles, Lions Win

Super Bowl:
Steelers beat Lions 18-14.  Yuck.

This will probably stay true for next week, since the Steelers playing the Colts should help, not hurt them, statistically.

Week 2 initial analysis

11 out of 16 winners correct this week.  One more than last week.  Also, really close on the scores on some of the games.  Nearly nailed the NE/SD, DEN/CIN, and NYG/STL game on the money for scores.  Also successfully predicted the blow outs in the DET/KC, NYJ/JAX games.  The scores were even higher than predicted, however.

As for my projections vs my gut... projections correct about the Eagles winning (although with Vick injured, can't promise that would have happened) and my gut was right about the Niners and Colts losing.

Week 2 Projections

Again, the simulation has the Eagles losing a game that I predict they'll win.  Also, as much as I love my Niners and hate the Cowboys, I don't see them beating the Cowboys this badly.  Actually, I'm not confident they'll beat them at all.  We'll see though.  I also don't think the Colts will beat the Browns.  Let's see who is more accurate, my gut or my formulas.

Updated Season Projections:

Difference in projection from last week

Bills go from 2 wins to 6.  Dolphins go from 6 to 4.  Patriots go from 11-12.  Jets 11-12.  Broncos 1-0.  Chiefs 7-5.  Raiders 9-8 (despite winning).  Chargers 11-13.  Ravens 12-14.  Bengals 6-8.  Browns 6-5.  Steelers 16-13.  Texans 5-9.  Colts 7-6.  Jags 5-7.  Titans 9-8.  Cowboys 6-7.  Giants 10-8.  Eagles 12-14.  Redskins 5-6.  Cardinals 4-6.  Niners 8-10 (doubt it).  Seahawks 5-4.  Rams stay at 5.  Bears 9-12 (wow). Lions 4-7.  Packers stay at 12.  Vikings 5-6 (really?).  Falcons 11-10.  Panthers stay at 0 (this will change-I'm sure of it).  Saints 12-11.  Bucs 10-7 (ouch).

And once again, I ran the next 4 weeks projections based on who would get to the playoffs in the above scenario.

Wild Card:
Jets @ Pats, Pats win
Steelers @ Texans, Texans win
Falcons @ Saints, Saints win
Packers @ Niners, Packers win

Divisional:
Texans @ Ravens, Ravens win
Pats @ Chargers, Pats win
Packers @ Bears, Bears win
Saints @ Eagles, Eagles win

Conference:
Pats @ Ravens, Ravens win
Bears @ Eagles, Eagles win

Superbowl:
Ravens vs Eagles
Ravens win 23-18

Analysis of first week

The projections were correct in choosing the winners for 10 out of 16 games which is pretty good considering it only had last years statistics.  It was off by an average of 10.7 points per game too.  The fact that there was 58 points scored more than a normal NFL week doesn't help, but I don't think that will continue.  It will get more accurate as the year goes on, promise!

On a bright note, the projected rushing yards averaged being within 7% of the actual.  Passing yards were all over the place.  Good teams were way above their own average and bad teams were well below.  They will even out.

What a difference a week makes

I need to re check all of the data, but after just one week of statistics and taking into account last years statistics as well, the new projection appears to be Ravens over the Eagles in the superbowl 23-18.  I'll post up everything later today.

Some upsets, but still just week 1

Overall, the scores weren't far off so far.  The biggest mistakes being the Ravens and the Bills obviously, but lets be honest... who saw those coming?  Cam Newton made a difference for the Panthers despite the loss and obviously the Colts are much worse without Manning.  Will try to have all the new data in tonight or tomorrow once the games are over for the week.

Obviously the Steelers won't be going 16-0 this year, but personally (and this is without any calculations), I think they'll still make the play offs.

One game down

So the only thing right in the first game was the rushing yards and the winner.  Saints projected rushing vs actual is 87/81.  Packers projected vs actual is 111/103.  Both teams have a good pass defense, so it's hard to project both teams doing better than their own average on passing offense.  Not to mention in week 1 offenses are usually more out of sync than defenses.  Obviously not the case for these two teams, but we'll see how the rest of the week goes.  I won't make any knee jerk reactions with my formulas based on one game.

Week 1 Calculated Projections

The game that sticks out like a sore thumb is the Rams vs Eagles game.  Without much thought it seems like a cake walk for the Eagles, but based on last years stats, the two teams match up so closely that the calculation came to a win for the Rams by a very slight home team advantage.

I also don't see the Vikings scoring only 9 points, but this is using stats without McNabb.

The Packers have a very good defense, but I'm not sure if they're going to hold the Saints to 12 points.  Keep in mind these are averaged points rounded to the nearest whole number.  Later weeks I have teams projected to score 8 points.  That's a rare score to have so 7, 9 or 10 would be more expected.

Team Records Projected based on nothing but last years stats:

These projections actually look about right to me.  I don't think Carolina will go 0-16 as I think they will be a better team this year, although not much better.  I'm not sure if the Niners are good enough to go 8-8 this year, but they have the 3rd easiest schedule in the NFL, so 8-8 still won't be impressive given their schedule.

The Colts have a schedule that would allow Manning to throw for 5,000 yards, but since he's out Week 1 and it's unknown how long he'll be out, I don't see that 5,027 passing yard number being accurate.

Bills had the worst rush defense in the league last year, but 2,920 yards against seems on the high side.  It doesn't help them that they play some of the leagues best rushing offenses in the league this year, however.

Play off Projections:

Wild Card Week

Giants @ Eagles: Eagles Win

Falcons @ Niners: Falcons Win

Jets @ Patriots: Patriots Win

Ravens @ Titans: Ravens Win

Division Week

Falcons @ Packers: Packers Win

Eagles @ Saints: Saints Win

Patriots @ Chargers: Chargers Win

Ravens @ Steelers: Steelers Win

Conference Week

Saints @ Packers: Packers Win

Chargers @ Steelers: Steelers Win

Superbowl: Steelers win 14-13 over the Packers

Intro

This blog exists mostly to showcase a simulator I developed in C#/SharePoint which attempts to predict the outcome of NFL games.  It calculates the winner, the points and the number of yards passing and rushing that should be achieved by each team.

Since the year has not started, this is based entirely off of statistics from last year.  It will be re-run with updated statistics every week along with a diminishing percentage of last years stats to improve accuracy.  Using stats from last year it has Carolina going 0-16 and not surprisingly the Steelers and Packers going to the Super Bowl.  However, the Steelers go 16-0 in the regular season and beat the Packers 14-13 based on this year's scheduling.  The Steelers do play the NFC West after all this year and their only difficult games are the Ravens, Colts and Patriots.  The other 3/4's of their schedule is practically a cake walk.

The projections will become more accurate by week 8 and I believe will be able to predict the play off teams and Super Bowl teams/winner barring any crazy special teams punt/kick off returns/blocked punts/etc,. because those are impossible to predict and can allow an inferior team to win.

These results are calculated entirely by statistics and not any of my personal bias towards any team.  This should be obvious since I have the Steelers winning the Super Bowl and I loathe them.

Slight alterations to the formulas I have created may occur during the year if I find ways to improve upon this.

I will also use this blog for random occasional rants and quirky one-liners whenever I feel like it.