Intro

This blog exists mostly to showcase a simulator I developed in C#/SharePoint which attempts to predict the outcome of NFL games.  It calculates the winner, the points and the number of yards passing and rushing that should be achieved by each team.

Since the year has not started, this is based entirely off of statistics from last year.  It will be re-run with updated statistics every week along with a diminishing percentage of last years stats to improve accuracy.  Using stats from last year it has Carolina going 0-16 and not surprisingly the Steelers and Packers going to the Super Bowl.  However, the Steelers go 16-0 in the regular season and beat the Packers 14-13 based on this year's scheduling.  The Steelers do play the NFC West after all this year and their only difficult games are the Ravens, Colts and Patriots.  The other 3/4's of their schedule is practically a cake walk.

The projections will become more accurate by week 8 and I believe will be able to predict the play off teams and Super Bowl teams/winner barring any crazy special teams punt/kick off returns/blocked punts/etc,. because those are impossible to predict and can allow an inferior team to win.

These results are calculated entirely by statistics and not any of my personal bias towards any team.  This should be obvious since I have the Steelers winning the Super Bowl and I loathe them.

Slight alterations to the formulas I have created may occur during the year if I find ways to improve upon this.

I will also use this blog for random occasional rants and quirky one-liners whenever I feel like it.